Philip E. Tetlock

California University of Pennsylvania — United States

Social Sciences · Social Sciences

76h-index26.4kcitations221works5.12yr avg
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Research Topics

Social and Intergroup Psychology(62), Cultural Differences and Values(25), Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics(23), Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment(23), Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies(17)

Publications220 total

Belief updating in AI‐risk debates: Exploring the limits of adversarial collaboration
Risk Analysis·2025· 1 cited
Subjective-probability forecasts of existential risk: Initial results from a hybrid persuasion-forecasting tournament
International Journal of Forecasting·2025· 2 cited
Improving Low-Probability Judgments
SSRN Electronic Journal·2025· 1 citedOpen Access
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy
ACM Transactions on Interactive Intelligent Systems·2024· 11 citedOpen Access
Identifying good forecasters via adaptive cognitive tests
arXiv (Cornell University)·2024Open Access
Wisdom of the silicon crowd: LLM ensemble prediction capabilities rival human crowd accuracy
Science Advances·2024· 24 citedOpen Access
Full Accuracy Scoring Accelerates the Discovery of Skilled Forecasters
2024
Assume a can opener
Behavioral and Brain Sciences·2024· 2 cited
Long-Range Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Slow-Motion Variables in World Politics: Exploring Limits on Expert Judgment
SSRN Electronic Journal·2023· 2 citedOpen Access
Are Progressives in Denial About Progress? Yes, but So Is Almost Everyone Else
Clinical Psychological Science·2022· 24 cited
Keep your enemies close: Adversarial collaborations will improve behavioral science.
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition·2022· 41 cited
The road less traveled: Understanding adversaries is hard but smarter than ignoring them.
Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition·2022· 3 cited
The internal validity obsession
Behavioral and Brain Sciences·2022· 3 cited
Navigating Interpersonal Workplace Communication Challenges: An Interaction-Focused Perspective
Academy of Management Proceedings·2021
Psychological Advice about Political Decision Making: Heuristics, Biases, and Cognitive Defects
2019· 5 cited
Political Attitudes, Cognitive Style, and Political Persuasion
2019
Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization
Cognition·2018· 45 cited
Integrative Complexity in Politics
Oxford University Press eBooks·2018· 13 cited
The Help-Decliner’s Dilemma: How to Decline Requests for Help at Work Without Hurting One’s Image
Academy of Management Proceedings·2018· 2 cited
Technical Appendix
Princeton University Press eBooks·2017
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Frequent Co-authors

Paul M. Sniderman(7), Gregory Mitchell(4), Arthur Lupia(4), Jennifer S. Lerner(3), Richard Boettger(3), Peter Suedfeld(3), Frederick L. Oswald(2), Hart Blanton(2), James Jaccard(2), Julie H. Goldberg(2), Linda J. Skitka(2), Jae Il Kim(2), Carmit T. Tadmor(2), James H. Kuklinski(2), Thomas Piazza(2), Barbara A. Mellers(2), Orie V. Kristel(1), S. Beth Elson(1), Melanie C. Green(1), J S Lerner(1)