Barbara A. Mellers

Decision Sciences · Social Sciences

55h-index12.8kcitations207works0.72yr avg
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Research Topics

Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics(78), Forecasting Techniques and Applications(38), Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies(21), Economic and Environmental Valuation(15), Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment(15)

Publications207 total

Prompt Engineering Large Language Models' Forecasting Capabilities
arXiv (Cornell University)·2025Open Access
Reply to Rohrer and Wenz and Arslan: The association between income and emotional well-being
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·2024Open Access
Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters
International Journal of Forecasting·2024· 2 cited
Reference-Point Theory: An Account of Individual Differences in Risk Preferences
Perspectives on Psychological Science·2023· 4 citedOpen Access
Human and Algorithmic Predictions in Geopolitical Forecasting: Quantifying Uncertainty in Hard-to-Quantify Domains
Perspectives on Psychological Science·2023· 7 citedOpen Access
Income and emotional well-being: A conflict resolved
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·2023· 158 citedOpen Access
Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just asking” – CORRIGENDUM
Judgment and Decision Making·2023Open Access
Fair Skill Brier Score: Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts of One-Off Events with Different Numbers of Categorical Outcomes
SSRN Electronic Journal·2023· 1 citedOpen Access
Predicting the future with humans and AI
Consumer Psychology Review·2022· 3 cited
Crowd Prediction Systems: Markets, Polls, and Elite Forecasters
Proceedings of the 23rd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation·2022· 5 cited
False dichotomy alert: Improving subjective-probability estimates vs. raising awareness of systemic risk
International Journal of Forecasting·2022· 4 cited
Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model
International Journal of Forecasting·2022· 11 cited
Megastudies improve the impact of applied behavioural science
Nature·2021· 242 citedOpen Access
What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?
International Journal of Forecasting·2021· 19 cited
Wise teamwork: Collective confidence calibration predicts the effectiveness of group discussion
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology·2021· 47 cited
Conflicting Goals Influence Physicians’ Expressed Beliefs to Patients and Colleagues
Medical Decision Making·2021· 1 cited
Reconciling Loss Aversion and Gain Seeking in Judged Emotions
Current Directions in Psychological Science·2021· 20 cited
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting
Management Science·2021· 42 cited
How perceptions of autonomy relate to beliefs about inequality and fairness
PLoS ONE·2021· 17 citedOpen Access
Small Steps to Accuracy: Incremental Belief Updaters Are Better Forecasters
2020· 4 citedOpen Access
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Frequent Co-authors

Philip E. Tetlock(12), Lyle Ungar(9), Michael H. Birnbaum(8), Eric Stone(5), Ilana Ritov(4), A. Peter McGraw(4), Philip E. Tetlock(4), Jonathan Baron(4), Alan Schwartz(3), Pavel Atanasov(3), Samuel A. Swift(3), Nick Rohrbaugh(3), Eva E. Chen(3), Lisa D. Ordóñez(3), Daniel Kahneman(2), Don A. Moore(2), Terry Murray(2), Angela Minster(2), Michaël Bishop(2), Michael C. Horowitz(2)