Philip E. Tetlock

Stanford University — United States

Decision Sciences · Social Sciences

52h-index14.1kcitations189works3.12yr avg
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Research Topics

Forecasting Techniques and Applications(43), Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics(36), Sports Analytics and Performance(14), Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment(12), Social and Intergroup Psychology(11)

Publications189 total

Preaching conservative ideas: The speech-act theory of value conflict
European Journal of Political Research·2026Open Access
Psychological elitism
Theory and Society·2025Open Access
Morally offensive scientific findings activate cognitive chicanery
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·2025· 1 citedOpen Access
Reflections on adversarial collaboration from the adversaries: was it worth it?
Theory and Society·2025· 2 citedOpen Access
Prompt Engineering Large Language Models' Forecasting Capabilities
arXiv (Cornell University)·2025Open Access
The Forecasting Proficiency Test: A General Use Assessment of Forecasting Ability
SSRN Electronic Journal·2025Open Access
Stretching the Limits of Science: Was the Implicit-Racism Debate a “Bridge Too Far” for Social Psychology?
Cambridge University Press eBooks·2024· 1 cited
Tracking Forecasting Accuracy of Geopolitical Schools of Thought—and Causes of Their Predictive Successes and Failures
Critical Review·2024
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities
arXiv (Cornell University)·2024· 1 citedOpen Access
Taboos and Self-Censorship Among U.S. Psychology Professors
Perspectives on Psychological Science·2024· 28 citedOpen Access
Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy
arXiv (Cornell University)·2024· 2 citedOpen Access
AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve Human Forecasting Accuracy
arXiv (Cornell University)·2024· 3 citedOpen Access
Crowd prediction systems: Markets, polls, and elite forecasters
International Journal of Forecasting·2024· 2 cited
Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·2023· 77 citedOpen Access
Exploring the limits on Meliorism: A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023)
Futures & Foresight Science·2023Open Access
Validating a forced-choice method for eliciting quality-of-reasoning judgments
Behavior Research Methods·2023Open Access
Human and Algorithmic Predictions in Geopolitical Forecasting: Quantifying Uncertainty in Hard-to-Quantify Domains
Perspectives on Psychological Science·2023· 7 citedOpen Access
AI and the transformation of social science research
Science·2023· 288 cited
Harm Hypervigilance in Public Reactions to Scientific Evidence
Psychological Science·2023· 17 citedOpen Access
Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment
Futures & Foresight Science·2023· 5 cited
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Frequent Co-authors

Barbara A. Mellers(13), Lyle Ungar(8), Eric Stone(5), Jennifer S. Lerner(3), Paul M. Sniderman(3), Jonathan Baron(3), Pavel Atanasov(3), Samuel A. Swift(3), Nick Rohrbaugh(3), Eva E. Chen(3), David R. Mandel(3), Lee Jussim(2), Richard A. Brody(2), Don A. Moore(2), Terry Murray(2), Igor Grossmann(2), Linda J. Skitka(2), Angela Minster(2), Michaël Bishop(2), Michael C. Horowitz(2)